Thursday, October 6, 2016

Sabato's Crystal Ball:Clinton’s Electoral College Lead Regenerates

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley,

As we await the second debate, it’s obvious that Hillary Clinton got a bounce from the first debate and has re-established a clear lead in the presidential race.

Her national lead in the RealClearPolitics average has gone up at least a couple of points since the debate (to about four points nationally in two- and four-way ballot tests), and it has increased to more than five points in the HuffPost Pollster average. She has arrested her September decline and has grabbed a lead that suggests she could match or even exceed Barack Obama’s 2012 victory (four points nationally and 332 electoral votes). But her path may look slightly different than Obama’s.

While we have had Clinton as a favorite to win the White House ever since we released our first Clinton vs. Donald Trump electoral map back in late March, we decreased her chances a few weeks ago, moving her from 348 electoral votes at least safe/likely/leaning to her (with 190 for Trump) to a map where she only had 272 safe/likely/leaning. So we had her over the magic number of 270, but just barely.


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