Sunday, November 6, 2016

Final Des Moines Register poll of Iowa has Trump winning easily

At Hot Air by Allahpundit

Ann Selzer is Iowa’s most respected pollster, someone whose track record of accurately calling the Iowa caucuses was impeccable … until she, er, predicted an easy win for Donald Trump in the final Des Moines Register poll this year. She had Trump beating Ted Cruz 28/23; the actual result was Cruz 27.6, Trump 24.3. She missed, in other words, by a net of eight points. Her final forecast for the general election, published last night: Trump by … seven. What could go wrong?

I’m just teasing. There’s every reason to believe Trump will win this state, which went twice for Obama, even if the margin isn’t quite the landslide Selzer is seeing. He hasn’t trailed in the RCP average of Iowa since September 1st and he led by seven points or better in more than one poll in mid-September. If Iowa, with its huge white working-class population, can’t deliver for Trump than we won’t need to worry about electoral maps or battleground states. It’ll be a national wipeout for Clinton.

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